Medical News
Global warming might make US-sized area inhabitable in this century
The silver lining is that mitigation efforts do matter provided the political will is there
An international team of researchers has estimated that many areas around the world, in total almost as big as the US or six percent of the planet’ s total, would be too hot for humans to survive if average global temperatures rise to 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels— a scenario that could materialise by 2100 or sooner, a 2024 UN report says, adding that global warming could potentially lead up to a 3 ° C surge by then unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced.
The prediction is even more catastrophic for the elderly as the research team, led by King’ s College London scientists, also warned that a 2 ° C increase would put at serious health risk people over 60 in about 35 percent of the earth. As the human body ages, it becomes less efficient at cooling down and adjusting to temperature increases, while heat can also worsen underlying conditions common in the elderly.
“ Unsurvivable heat thresholds, which so far have only been exceeded briefly for older adults in the hottest regions on Earth, are likely to emerge even for younger adults. In such conditions, prolonged outdoor exposure— even for those if in the shade, subject to a strong breeze, and well hydrated— would be expected to cause lethal heatstroke. It represents a step-change in heat-mortality risk,” study lead author Dr Tom Matthews, a senior lecturer in environmental geography at King’ s College London, said in a press release.
Researchers define‘ unsurvivable thresholds’ as those beyond which the body’ s core temperature surges to 42 ° C within six hours. Some areas are more at risk for reaching these thresholds, such as Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Dr Matthews said that predicting how high temperatures could rise was crucial to understanding the impact of global warming and the consequences for failing to tackle it. It’ s also essential information to adapt to hotter climates.
“ Interdisciplinary work is vital to improving our understanding of unprecedented heat’ s deadly potential and how it can be reduced. As more of the planet experiences outdoor conditions too hot for our physiology, it will be essential that people have reliable access to cooler environments to shelter from the heat,” he said.
This is hardly news. Since 2000 more than 260,000 people have died from heat waves in a clear sign that the health impact of global warming is already playing out.
The World Meteorological Organization said in a press release that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with average global temperatures surpassing the average between 1850 and 1900 by 1.5 ° C, while the past 10 years had all been in the top ten, highlighting an upward trend that seems poised to continue.
In order to mitigate the effects of climate change, many countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 with the aim of reducing emissions and holding the increase in temperatures to“ well below 2 ° C” while also pursuing the goal of limiting the rise to 1.5 ° C above preindustrial levels.
Though this goal now looks increasingly harder to meet, the new study suggests that any reduction in average global temperatures will have beneficial effects by reducing risks to human survival.
“ Individual years pushing past the 1.5 degree limit do not mean the long-term goal is shot. It means we need to fight even harder to get on track. Blazing temperatures in 2024 require trail-blazing climate action in 2025,” UN secretary-general Antóno Guterres said in a press release.“ There’ s still time to avoid the worst of climate catastrophe. But leaders must act – now.”
Since 2000 more than 260,000 people have died from heat waves in a clear sign that the health impact of global warming is already playing out.
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